Stakes
The WISC race may be over and Janet Protasiewicz soon to be seated as its newest justice, but allow me to draw attention to the fact that Pennsylvania has a Supreme Court race coming up this fall. While the outcome won’t flip the Dem-controlled court, it could put the GOP within striking distance if they win.
For reference, the court was 5D-2R until the untimely death of (D) Max Baer, the Chief Justice, bringing its current composition down to 4D-2R. Should the GOP win the election to fill the vacant seat, the court will become 4D-3R with an opening to flip or win another seat later down the line.
Now, the chances of that are extremely unlikely anytime soon for various reasons regardless of the outcome, but as many people are now aware given recent situations with the US Supreme Court and WISC, you’d much rather make sure that opportunities to lose your advantage are avoided or eliminated as soon as possible.
Having said that, keep in mind that due to the circumstances of the 2015 election that handed Democrats a majority on the PA Supreme Court, not one, not two, but three seats, all Dem-controlled, will be up at the same time in the next Supreme Court election in 2025. That’s in two short years! Naturally, it’s critical to pad the margin of the current majority. Sitting justices in PA rarely lose their retention elections, if ever, but better safe than sorry.
You’ve got the big picture. What about the candidates?
The Candidates
With the primary heating up and scheduled for May 16th (next month!), there are two candidates each running on the Republican and Democratic side, respectively. The winners will go on to face each other in the general election in November. As is often the case in PA, you have varying coalition and structural advantages associated with the eligible candidates.
Dems
Much like Protasiewicz in WI, McCaffery is the prohibitive favorite for Democrats. He’s a judge from Philadelphia and has deep ties to Democratic Party institutions across the state. He’s worked on various Dem campaigns, served as legal counsel for many, and spent decades in various sectors of the law. You name it, he’s probably done it. I’ve linked his campaign website and you can clearly see why he’s the favorite if you have a look.
Kunselman is a much lower profile candidate than McCaffery is. Unlike him, she’s carved out a path that’s much less associated with the Democratic Party. However, she hails from western PA, specifically Beaver County. So, if you see regional splits in the primary map next month, this is why. Regardless, I’m not holding my breath on that too much because Kunselman will likely not get that high of a vote share in the primary. She does not have a lot of connections and the focus is pretty clearly on McCaffery.
Dem primary prediction: safe McCaffery
Republicans
Like the Dan Kelly and Jennifer Dorow matchup in Wisconsin before their primary, a similar situation is playing out in Pennsylvania. Republicans are fielding two candidates; one of them happens to be a darling favorite of the establishment and is generally an inoffensive candidate with solid judicial credentials. The other is, you guessed it, a Trumpian-style candidate who has scandals up the wazoo and was involved with trying to block the November 2020 election results in her position as a judge with a mix of election denialism to boot.
Obviously, you have a good idea of which candidate Dems would much rather prefer to face in the general election. Here’s a few bits about the two judges in question.
Carolyn Carluccio (establishment)
Endorsed by the PA Republican Party, she’s made a longtime career as an attorney and judge in Montgomery County. She’s well liked by her peers and rated as highly recommended by the PA Bar Association, the same as McCaffery and Kunselman. She hasn’t been involved in high profile cases that touch on hot button issues like abortion or ballot access, so she’s been able to insulate herself pretty well in terms of how she would rule on certain topics.
Patricia McCullough (Trumpian)
The fact that she doesn’t even have a proper website and I had to link to a bio about her speaks volumes. For what it’s worth, she raised almost nothing and had a similar profile in terms of visibility the last time she ran in a primary for a Supreme Court seat in 2021. She got about 33% of the vote in that particular run. She may be Trumpian, but she isn’t putting in the work nor investment like Dan Kelly did. Ironic, because she put in more effort to stop certifying election results, showing up to Doug Mastriano rallies, and declaring herself as the candidate anointed by God and Trump than she did in this primary.
The thing is, if McCullough wasn’t so invisible in practically every way, I would be inclined to not rate this as a shoo-in for Carluccio, but I see no viable path for the former. If she actually had a little bit of cash and a higher profile, she would probably give Carluccio a serious run for her money. Therefore, my prediction for the Republican primary for the time being is safe Carluccio.
The PA GOP base will do its thing if they actually know about you. And short of Trump suddenly endorsing McCullough or some other seismic-shifting event like Dems flooding the airwaves with pro-McCullough ads, the base will let this one slide.
Reminders
We’ve got stakes and our candidates. The continued existence and preservation of a Democratic majority is vital for various reasons. Here’s a list of just a few of the pro-democracy things they’ve done over the last few years.
Instituted fair congressional maps that pretty closely tracks with how PA votes in a given election cycle.
Shut down Trump’s nonsense in 2020 with mail-in ballots.
Favorable rulings to increase and protect election access.
Abortion Rights (TBD)
If you’d like all of those things to continue to happen for the foreseeable future, it would be preferable for Dems to keep and preserve as big of a majority on the court as possible. And for PA residents, remember to show up and vote!
Final Thoughts
I’m sure people are curious to know what my rating is for this coming November if the two favored candidates move forward. The answer is this: I’m not sure yet. I want to see how the primary plays out first before I start concretely breaking things down. One thing’s for sure - this is going to be a SEPA-dominated race, assuming that McCaffery and Carluccio will be squaring off against each other. Their respective bases and connections are mostly in Philly and Montgomery counties. This is different than, say, if Kunselman was facing off against Carluccio. And way different if McCullough was involved. In fact, I would be pretty comfortable giving the advantage to Democrats if McCullough was the Republican nominee.
But that in itself is not the only thing influencing general election chances. We’ve had cases where candidates have won their primaries, but set themselves up for failure or success in general elections based on how they navigated themselves through the former. Additionally, bases and coalitions are going to be different on the margins based on what happens. That’s why I rarely weigh in on anything concrete before a primary is over, not just this particular election.
Regardless, see you all on May 16th for the next step on the Supreme Court journey!